Spurs (1) vs Grizzlies (8)
With or without Manu Ginobili (he’s listed as doubtful for game one), the Spurs are the better team. Memphis does tend to play well against them, though, so I do expect the first playoff victory in Grizz franchise history. I don’t really expect much more than that, though. Many people are predicting an upset here… look, I love the Memphis Grizzlies. They play very hard, they’re young, and they’re exciting… but they aren’t winning any damn playoff series against the San Antonio Spurs. It’s a tempting thing to ponder because they’ve had recent success in the regular season, but it’s not happening. Oh, you want a stat? Fine: the Spurs ranked first in three-point percentage this season (and not because they didn’t shoot many). Memphis finished 24th in three-point defense based on percentage. They’re gonna get lit up like a Christmas tree by the confident and experienced Spurs.
NBA247365.COM’s Guaransheed: Spurs in 6. I want to say 5, but I’ll give Memphis an extra game due to the Ginobili issues.
Lakers (2) vs Hornets (7)
What an excellent opportunity for the Lakers to build some confidence. The Hornets are without David West, and they finished the season on an attrocious note with three straight blowout losses. Chris Paul isn’t playing well, they aren’t putting any points on the board… this one could get ugly. The Lakers are very lucky to have drawn New Orleans instead of Portland. LA may need a game or two to build up some momentum because they’ve been so–f@ck it–bad lately. They would’ve had to play well to beat the Blazers. They can have some subpar games and still skate past the banged up Bees.
NBA247365.COM’s Guaransheed: Lakers in 4.
Mavericks (3) vs Blazers (6)
I think Dallas could be in trouble here. That’s actually less of a knock on Dallas than it is a compliment to the Blazers. I felt like whoever got Portland was going to be in for one of the toughest first round series. LaMarcus Aldridge put damn near 28 PPG on Dallas this season; it seems that he enjoys sticking it to his hometown team. I expect nothing but greatness from him. Andre Miller didn’t put up much for digits against Dallas this season, but I feel like he presents soem matchup issues. Jason Kidd can’t stay in front of him, and JJ Berea can’t handle him in the post. Miller dropped, what, 52 on ‘em last year… so he could be an X factor. Dallas and Portland split the season series, each winning their two home games. Portland has one of the strongest homecourt advantages in the entire league, but the Mavs were the association’s best road team in 2010/11. I really think this one will be long, close, and interesting. I expect a battle.
NBA247365.COM’s Guaransheed: Blazers in 7.
Thunder (4) vs Nuggets (5)
This one is going to be entertaining as hell. If I could only watch one series, I’d probably pick this one (although Mavs/Blazers reeeally piques my interest as well). I figure this is the most athletic first round matchup… just look at some of the names: Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, JR Smith, Kenyon Martin… if that doesn’t excite you, you aren’t a basketball fan with a pulse. As for who’s going to win… I’ll be rooting hard for the Nuggets, but I’d feel more confident if half the roster wasn’t coming off some sort of injury. Mozgov, Lawson, Afflolo, and Gallinari were all out with some sort of ailment as of the final game of the regular season. They’re all supposed to be back for the playoffs, but it doesn’t seem like the team could possibly be 100 percent. I really can see this one going either way, but due to injury issues, I think I’ll give the edge to OKC.
NBA247365.COM’s Guaransheed: Thunder in 7.
