It’s hard to believe that we’re already just over one month into the NBA season. It seems like just yesterday that the Heat were being hyped as a 72-win monster and Kevin Durant was certainly going to be the league’s MVP. There’s been no shortage of surprises thus far, and we’re just getting started. Here’s my picks for MVP, ROY, COY, DPOY, and MIP.
MVP: Dwight Howard (21.8 PTS, 12.1 REB, 2.4 BLK, 59.5 FG%), ORL (13-4)
Two things have to be considered when trying to identify an MVP candidate: Individual impact on the team, and team success. Dwight’s currently the most important player (by far) on the top team in the East, and he’s got the MVP-caliber numbers. He’s still a game-changer defensively, and with a new and improved post game the Magic have been able to look to him for more consistent production on the offensive end. Dwight is putting up 2.6 more shots per game that he did last season, and his scoring is up by 3.5 points. He’s also getting to the line more than he ever has in his career, but he’s still hoisting bricks. If he could hit a freethrow he’d be running away with this award.
Others in the conversation:
- Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas: Dirk has his Dallas Mavericks tied for second in the West (13-4). He’s shooting an incredible 54.5% from the floor while scoring 27 points per game. Dirk would probably be my runner-up at this point, I feel like he’s got the second best mixture of individual numbers and team success.
- Derrick Rose, Chicago: Many laughed when D-Rose said he felt like he could be an MVP this year, but no one’s laughing now. Rose is having an amazing individual season… he’s third in the league in scoring (26.6 PPG) and eigth in assists (8.2 APG). The Bulls are only 9-6, but that’s good enough for fourth in the East, and a little more impressive when you consider that they’ve played nine road games already and that Carlos Boozer hasn’t even suited up yet.
- Manu Ginobili, San Antonio: Manu has been the most important player on the best team in the league, so he obviously has to be in the discussion. The Spurs are currently sitting atop the league at 15-2, and Manu has been the main man with Duncan playing more of a supportive role. What Manu lacks are the big numbers that an MVP candidate typically puts up. Manu averages just under 22 points and five assists on 48% from the floor, which is a nice line, but it doesn’t really scream “MVP!”. It will be difficult for Manu to win an MVP no matter how good he and the Spurs are due to the presence of Tim Duncan and Tony Parker along with a gang of more-than-solid role players.
ROY: Blake Griffin (20.2 PTS, 11.6 REB, 2.6 AST, 52 FG%), LAC (3-15)
Fortunately for Blake, team success doesn’t carry anywhere near as much weight with ROY as it does with MVP… plus he plays for the Clippers, it’s not like it’s his fault. Individual success is what I’m looking at here, and no one’s messing with Griffin in that department. He’s currently on pace to average 20/10, and he’s already posted the following games: 18/18, 26/17, 35/14, and 44/15 along with seven other double-doubles. He’s yet to miss any games due to injury, and he’s even shown an impressive passing ability for a young big man. He dishes 2.6 dimes a game, which is good enough for a top 10 spot in the league amongst power forwards and centers.
Others in the conversation:
- John Wall, Washington: His turnovers are pretty high and his shooting percentage is a little low, but those things are to be expected from a rookie point guard, and other than that his line looks great. Wall averages 18 points, nine assists, and 2.8 steals for the 5-11 Wizards. He has already missed six games due to injury, which doesn’t help his case right now, but if he stays healthy the rest of the way it won’t be an issue.
COY: Jerry Sloan, Utah Jazz (14-5)
Jerry Sloan is my pick for Coach of the Year every single time I have to choose, and will continue to be until the NBA gives him the damn award. The guy has been coaching successful Jazz teams for over two decades, and he’s doing it yet again this season. The problem with the COY award is that in order to win your team has to suck, and then make a dramatic improvement from one season to another. Jerry Sloan’s teams never suck, so he’s never won. He probably never will win, but this year would be an excellent opportunity to give it to him if the Jazz can continue to play as well as they have thus far. They’re currently 3rd in the West even though they underwent some pretty major off-season player movement (Boozer out, Al Jeff in).
Others in the conversation: No one. Give it to Jerry, dammit.
DPOY: Dwight Howard, ORL
I’m normally an advocate of giving this award to a guy who’s more of an individual, lock-down defender… the type of player who’s job it is to stick the other guy’s superstar night in and night out. In the case of Dwight Howard I’m willing to waiver from that view point. Why? Because a basketball game is simply not the same when Dwight’s roaming the paint. Defense isn’t all about swatting shots, although doing so 2.4 times a night doesn’t hurt, but it’s not even about that. Dwight alters tons of shots every game just by being on the floor. Teams don’t get many quality looks in the paint when Howard’s around, and where do you think teams want to be shooting? In the paint, obviously. The statistics back him up: Orlando is first in the league in opponent points, first in opponent points in the paint, and sixth in opponent FG%. Obviously this has everything to do with Dwight Howard, and that’s why he’s my DPOY.
Others in the conversation:
- Kevin Garnett, Boston: KG is similar to Dwight in the way that he alters a game defensively. The Celtics are second in the league in opponent points in the paint, fourth in opponent PPG, and eighth in opponent FG%. KG simply doesn’t have the shot blocking and rebounding numbers that Dwight has, and Boston’s team defensive stats aren’t quite as good as Orlando’s.
- Shane Battier, Houston: He’s still doing what he does, guarding the opposition’s best player every night. Houston is terrible though–just 5-12–so Battier really has no chance at getting this award.
MIP: Kevin Love (19 PTS, 14.9 REB, 1.9 AST), MIN (4-13)
Love was a pretty good player already, but now he’s a straight up BEAST. Love is leading the league in rebounding and has increased his PPG by five. He’s hitting almost a three a game at a rate of 34%, and his freethrow percentage has increased from 81.5 to 89.7. Love had the first 30/30 game the NBA had seen in 28 years and four 20/20 games in November alone. The scary part? The guy wasn’t even getting big minutes to start the season… he came out of the gate slow. His averages could actually improve by the end of the year.
Others in the conversation:
- Michael Beasley, Minnesota: Kevin Love’s teammate is putting up 21.6 PPG this season, which is nearly a seven point increase over last year’s average. Beasley recorded a career-high 42 on November 10th during a streak of six consecutive games where he dropped 25 or more. His field goal percentage is up one percent from his career average, which doesn’t seem very impressive until you consider the fact that he’s taking by far the most shots he’s ever attempted in his career and he’s on a terrible team.
- Dorell Wright, Golden State: After seven injury-riddled seasons in Miami, my main man Dorell was placed into the starting lineup for the Warriors and he hasn’t looked back. Wright is averaging 15.3 points per game, which is almost twice as good as his previous best season (7.9 PPG in 07/08, played just 44 games). Wright has become a three-point-shooting machine: he’s averaging 2.3 triples per game on 42.4%. Obviously some of the statistical improvement can be chalked up to Golden State’s uptempo system, but give Wright lots of credit for taking advantage of his opportunity. The system isn’t making the shots for him.
